BY BRADEN CARTWRIGHT
Daily Post Staff Writer
Caltrain will close 10 stations, end weekend service, stop trains at 9 p.m. and eventually wind down operations if a Bay Area sales tax fails on the November ballot, officials said yesterday.
“Caltrain and BART would very likely be looking at shutting down passenger service,” Deputy Director of Policy Development Melissa Jones said. “In that case, the agencies would be focused on maintenance, trying to secure our assets, keep everything safe while we regroup for the future.”
Jones and her team are looking at which stations would close, based on their ridership and location, and other saving measures to start in summer 2027.
Death spiral
Cutting service will drive riders away, reducing fare revenue even further and offsetting most of the cuts, Jones said. She estimated Caltrain would need to shut down within one to two years.
“I believe that (public) transportation without this measure is gone,” San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa said at Caltrain’s board meeting yesterday.
Caltrain is using a state loan to balance next year’s budget but faces a $75 million annual deficit starting on July 1, 2027, Jones said.
‘Crying wolf’
Palo Alto Councilman Pat Burt said members of the public criticized BART for “crying wolf” on its plan to close stations and cut back service without a tax.
“We all here understand the reality of this, but that doesn’t mean everyone else does,” Burt said. “So how do we message this in away that’s credible rather than sounding alarmist? Even though it is alarming.”
Canepa was more alarmist. He said he wants to raise awareness for the “carmageddon” that would hit Bay Area freeways and to identify which of Caltrain’s 31 stations would close.
“Let’s give people the worst case sce-narios, and let them make the decision,” Canepa said.
Redwood City Councilman Jeff Gee said riders will no longer have a way of getting home from San Francisco Giants games and other events. He worried the Federal Transit Administration will try to take back a $647 million grant from Caltrain that was used to convert from diesel to electric trains, with the condition that Caltrain run more trains.
Eventually Caltrain would have to sell its assets or lease them to a company to run the railroad, Gee said.
Caltrain purchased the railroad from Union Pacific in 1991.
Ridership nosedives
Transit agencies are trying to address a loss in fare revenue that started in March 2020 when offices closed because of Covid. Caltrain’s ridership was at 64% of pre-pandemic numbers in February.
Public transit advocates are gathering signatures to place a half-cent sales tax on the November ballot in five Bay Area counties.
The tax would last 14 years and generate about $1 billion per year, according to the state Senate.
If the measure passes, BART would get $330 million, VTA would get $264 million and Muni would get $170 million per year.
Caltrain would get $75 million, and SamTrans would get $50 million.
Polling
Polls in January 2025 showed the tax had between 51% and 57% support, above the 50% needed to pass.
PG&E, Visa, labor unions and the owners of the Golden State Warriors have donated to the $1.3 million campaign for the measure, campaign finance forms show.
Wake up people!
California under one party rule of the Democrats is circling the drain. Just one more tax increase is all they need, until the next tax increase and the next tax increase.
When the Southern Pacific operated the line, they recognized it was no longer profitable in the 1970’s. When Caltrain took it over in 1985, it was going to be “better”.
In. 2022, Caltrain predicted it would lose $500 Million over the several years. They spent tens of Billions to electrify the system and that was going to solve everything.
And you wonder why people are fleeing California in droves…
They spent less than $3 billion, not tens of billions to electrify, but your point about upgrading the trains while in financial peril is still on point.
We need strong mass transit for a healthy and fair bay area. I hope voters will support new funds for mass transit this fall.
What’s fair about forcing one group of people to pay for the transportation of another group that doesn’t want to pay? What’s fair about making people who are at the bottom or middle of the income scale pay a higher percentage of their income for transportation than the wealthy?
All taxpayers support government spending on roads whether or not they drive a car, and government spending on K-12 schools whether or not they have a child. This is because our our people through their democratically elected representatives believe, properly, that roads and schools are good for society as a whole. Likewise, it is fair for all taxpayers to support government spending on mass transit whether or not they ride a bus or train.
Progressive taxes are better than regressive taxes. I’d rather fund roads and transit with a graduated income tax. Whereas gas taxes, highway tolls, transit fares, and sales taxes are all regressive — everybody pays the same amount, so lower-income people pay a greater portion of their income compared to higher-income people. But we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Bay area mass transit needs more government funding, and the way voters can achieve this in November is with a new sales tax. I hope everyone will vote for these funds.
Keep in mind that people use roads to get to and from transit, and also buses, first responders, last mile deliveries, etc. all use roads. The need for transportation is valid, but the questions are about: at what cost? in what mode? and who pays? Transit riders pay less than 15% of the operating costs of their rides. Cars pacy for the roads (and some of the transit). New technologies are more convenient and cost-effective than rail transit – which is also run by a barnacled bureaucracy. What is needed is a rethinking of public transportation capitalizing on work & shop from home, AV’s, vanpools, etc. – rather than continuing to waste money on an outdated approach.
The problem with this argument is that unions can’t shut down the freeways, but they can shut down transit.
Caltrain isn’t the only transit agency needing a huge cash infusion. BART is in even worse shape. The problem is that none of these agencies can give any consideration to cost reduction because their labor contracts can’t be modified. It kind of made sense during the pandemic to have BART lay off workers or lower salaries since ridership was down by more than half. Instead the federal government came in and subsidized BART. Now that the federal subsidy has run out and ridership has only improved marginally of course the system is facing a crisis. A sales tax increase will have to be permanent and it won’t solve the transit financing long term because the unions will demand raises to keep up with the cost of living increase that the sales tax will worsen. Vicious circle.
The other issue with Caltrain is that the politicians who run things around here have designated the Caltrain right-of-way as the final leg of high-speed rail from San Jose to San Francisco. You can do one or the other but not both.
I’m tired of seeing empty trains all day, with full trains during the commute hours. Why run the empty trains? It’s a COMMUTER train, run it only during the hours the cars are full and revenue is up.
All public transportation systems require public funding, but they’re not all the same, and shouldn’t be treated as if they were. I myself plan to vote No on the regional transit measure, but I’d vote Yes on one that supported just Caltrain.
BART should not get another penny of taxpayer money without significant reforms to its governance, operations, management culture and accountability. Supported by well-known complacent and short-term-fixated politicians (ie those not named Steve Glazer), BART has got away with this “give us more money or we shoot this dog” stuff for decades, with a history of stonewalling oversight while successfully diverting money even from pots they weren’t supposed to have access to. It’s unrealistic to expect change without a crisis.
Caltrain, on the other hand, has largely recovered from the pandemic and remains one of the better managed transit systems in the Bay Area.
Tying funding for a healthy system to a dysfunctional one hurts both, and all the riders who depend on them.
Caltrain needs a public funding mechanism not locked to the millstone of BART-as-is, and Peninsula and South Bay elected officials need to find the political courage to pursue one.
You say Caltrain ridership has largely recovered from the pandemic? Did you read the story? Ridership is at 64% of what it was before the pandemic. If a business was only collecting 64% of its revenue from five years ago, it would be closed.
Stop enabling wasteful spending!
Remember a few years ago when it was revealed that a BART janitor named Liang Zhao Zhang made $271,000 in a single year while spending countless hours sleeping in a closet while on the clock?
In addition, the BART OIG found multiple instances of time sheet fraud by other employees too.
Bart needs to crack down on the rampant time sheet fraud and wasteful spending before asking for one cent in extra tax revenue.
Unfortunately, there is no will on the BART board to do this. The BART board isn’t accountable to taxpayers. Latefah Simon got elected to Congress from the Oakland area with no experience except being on the BART board. No one of any stature wanted the seat even though there was a knock-down, drag-out battle for Congress in the South Bay and one is now going on in San Francisco. I hope Scott Weiner wins Pelosi’s seat just to get him out of California.
The deficits seem systemic, would like to know if this sales tax increase will fix the deficits in the long term. Getting tiresome to be guilted into yet another tax increase every 5-6 years.
The problem with these transit agencies? No cost controls. They aren’t free to set salaries and they can’t lay anyone off. How many private businesses could stay in business with those constraints? The media is blind to this.
Yes, but don’t they also ay a higher percentage for food and housing? Why is public transportation any different?
Caltrain has been mismanaged for years internally and they’ve always come to the state for help and bailouts… meanwhile the state of CA has turned a blind eye to all the “Learing Center” scams that are rampant here… Somalians doing what Somali’s do, lie, cheat and teal (the clan/pirate life) as well the Armenians down in LA/Glendale cornering the Hospice scam. I’m sure the Ethiopians are scamming as well, just look at all the adult men and women living in YWCA buildings and driving nice cars.
I object to these racist statements.
Adam, that’s what the governor of Minnesota said when investigators wanted to look into fraud complaints. Calling somebody a racist to stop an accusation allows the fraud to keep going. It’s becoming standard playbook for the woke politicians and their brain-washed followers.
To anyone who lives in Palo Alto, or who is thinking about moving here, who is of Somali, Armenian, or Ethiopian descent: You are welcome in Palo Alto.
… unless you plan to steal from the taxpayers. If that’s the case, you should he arrested, tried in court and, if convicted, serve a long prison sentence. Upon release you should be forcibly returned to your country of origin. What’s more, your fancy cars and expensive homes will be sold at auction and the proceeds returned to the U.S. Treasury. Isn’t that fair, Adam?
Why?
Speaking of the State of California, let’s hear it for Caltrans (the CA Department of Transportation) working tirelessly to destroy all small business on El Camino Real by replacing their parking with bike lanes in case someone is crazy enough to bike on such a dangerous state road.
Golly gee — it’s such a surprise that PA sales tax revenue has declined so much with no one to fight for our local retailers and restaurants.
Who needs sales tax revenue anyway when they can keep proposing new sales taxes and spending more money on more polls although support for new taxes declines each time. voters are polled.
Let us also not forget how two former Caltrains employees, Seth Andrew Worden and Joseph Vincent Navarro, used Caltrains money to build apartments for themselves inside the Millbrae and Burlingame stations. They utilized these apartments rent free for years before it came to light.
What other financial mismanagement is Caltrains failing to root out?
All of these transportation agencies need fiscal audits before asking for more money.
Caltrain and Bay Area transit officials have a clear financial interest in alarming the public, and their apocalyptic predictions of total shutdown deserve serious scrutiny before taxpayers agree to a 14-year, billion-dollar annual tax commitment. The so-called “polling” showing 51–57% support is cited without any public methodology, sample size, margin of error, or independent verification — manufactured urgency backed by unverifiable numbers is a classic pressure tactic, not transparent governance. To make matters worse, a sales tax is one of the most regressive forms of taxation possible, hitting low-income residents the hardest since they spend a far greater share of their earnings on everyday purchases than the wealthy donors like PG&E, Visa, and Golden State Warriors ownership who are bankrolling this $1.3 million campaign — meaning the very people who can least afford it will disproportionately subsidize a system that benefits corporate commuters and well-heeled San Francisco event-goers. Rather than accepting worst-case scenarios crafted by the very officials who would administer these funds, voters should demand a full independent financial audit of Caltrain’s operations, a clear explanation of how ridership only recovered to 64% of pre-pandemic levels despite years of opportunity, and real accountability before the working poor are asked to foot the bill.
We can do one thing – change WHO we vote for. That will do more good than keep voting for trains to no where for how many more years?
Don’t y’all get it? It’s all about cheating.
They use the so-called ballot question as the campaign. All local measure elections do. When you can have the taxpayers pay for the campaign using public moneys to print, mail, and count ballots that all have the campaign arguments on them, they can always win.
The California Supreme Court says it’s unconstitutional and criminal to use public moneys to take sides in an election. The registrars ignore the law. The prosecutors — county, state, and federal — all hide under their desks like it’s not their duty to put fellow public serpents behind bars for openly public theft.
Unfortunately, the law to vitiate (cancel) an election requires a brave soul who had the right to vote on the measure to take it to court in a special proceeding shortly after the election.
Where are the tax payer organizations on this? You’re kidding, right? The one’s with the biggest mouths are protecting their own income streams.
Only you can save yourself.
Don’t be fools and spend time and money on a campaign. Pool your resources and find a lawyer who’s not an idiot — one who doesn’t say you can’t challenge a measure after the election.
With the constitution, the statutes, and the court decisions on your side, stop complaining. Shut these thieves down. But don’t stop there. Put them all in jail. There are hefty penalties for the state crimes, but the federal crimes (they use the mail now) are even heftier.
There’s even still time to cancel Santa Clara County Measure A sales tax from last November.
Check out the link under the poster’s name.
Caltrain has been for years and years a notoriously mismanaged mess. Look.. step up and say “We are not a business, but a subsidized public service entity” full stop. Stop begging for more every quarter. Come out with a realistic financial plan, with subsidy/loss/investment needs. I am sick to death of hearing about dire financial and service cuts (aka threats). Just deal with it. Come up with a realistic plan and release it. Enough already ! Geez.