Poll shows a Cubberley tax would fail at the polls

BY STEPHANIE LAM
Daily Post Correspondent

Palo Alto City Council on Monday (Feb. 9) is scheduled to sign an agreement with TheaterWorks for a new theatre at Cubberley Community Center, but residents don’t seem likely to approve a new tax for a rebuild of the dilapidated community center, new polling data shows.

The agreement with TheatreWorks Silicon Valley calls for building a two-theater, 40,000-square-foot performing arts center at Cubberley, 4000 Middlefield Road.

But council members are also planning to review results from a poll that ran from Jan. 5 to 12, which shows only 48% of voters support either a parcel tax or general sales tax to fund such updates. A parcel tax needs two-thirds of the vote to pass, while a general sales tax needs a simple majority. The poll was conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Metz & Associates (FM3), a market research firm.

In a report to the council, FM3 said Palo Alto may want to consider waiting until 2028 to push for a tax or bond to give the city more time to generate support.

In a November 2025 poll, 55% of respondents said they saw at least “some need” for additional funding to improve Cubberley. That percentage dropped to 36% by January. Meanwhile a third of respondents said they see “no real need” to fund improvements at all.

For years city discussions about Cubberley revolved around fixing its aging infrastructure to meet earthquake fire and safety requirements, and replacing some of the rundown buildings.

But then the council floated ideas about ambitious amenities that could be built there instead, including a performing arts center, wellness center and updated educational spaces. The renovations would cost taxpayers around $392 million. The city wants to put on the November ballot a measure that would allow the city to purchase 7 acres of land from the Palo Alto Unified School District for $65.5 million, which will be used to expand the city’s ownership of Cubberley. Any leftover money could be used to fund safety upgrades or renovations.

The ballot could come in the form of a bond measure, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage, or a sales tax measure. A sales tax hike would only require a simple majority if it were designated as a “general tax,” meaning the city could use the money for any purpose. If the sales tax measure were for a specific purpose, a two-thirds majority is necessary for passage.

TheatreWorks has offered to pay for the construction of the new performing arts center. If the deal goes through, the organization previously told he Post it will launch a “major capital campaign” to raise the funds.

Friends of the Recreation Wellness Center, a nonprofit that is working with the city to potentially build a new gym or wellness center in the new Cubberley, has offered to raise donations on is own for its project.